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Thread: DRAM Shortages Expected Next Year (2014)

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    Default DRAM Shortages Expected Next Year (2014)

    Global DRAM Market




    DRAM Shortages Expected Next Year


    Hynix's latest 44Nano 1Gb DDR3 RAM Chip.jpg

    Hynix's latest 44nm 1Gb DDR3 RAM chip.







    20 NOVEMBER 2013


    Following oversupply in Q1-Q3 2013, DRAM chips are in short supply in Q4, and the trend is expected to continue in 2014. As a result, DRAM prices are likely to continue to rise, and memory manufacturers will probably record better performance next year.
    According to market research firm iSuppli on November 18, in Q3 this year the demand for 1GB DDR3 RAM equaled 9.142 billion units, while the supply amounted to 9.302 billion units. The proportion of demand to supply was 102%.
    However, the fourth quarter has seen a surge in demand and a decrease in supply. So far, 11.53 billion units have been demanded, but only 9.877 billion units have been supplied to the market. The demand to supply ratio is 86%.
    In Q1 2014, it is predicted that 11.011 billion units will be requested, while 10.179 billion units will be available in the market. The ratio is estimated to be 92%. In the second quarter, the ratio is likely to reach 91% with 11.611 billion units in demand and 10.582 billion units in supply.
    Starting in Q3 next year, the gap between demand and supply is going to widen again. In Q4, demand is likely to reach 15.192 billion units, whereas supply is expected to stand at 11.926 billion units. Thus, the percentage of supply vis-à-vis demand is forecast to be 79%. It is anticipated that the market will encounter the worst supply shortages after the first quarter of 2015.

    Experts in the stock market are forecasting that the demand and supply for DRAM chips are not going to be kept in balance next year. IBK Securities is predicting a 29% increase in demand and a 26% rise in supply in 2014. Analysts in the semiconductor memory industry anticipate that DRAM prices will continue to go up next year.
    In fact, the DRAM spot price has been steadily rising since the fire in SK Hynix’s Wuxi plant on September 4. According to semiconductor e-commerce site DRAMeXchange, the price for 1GB DDR3 RAMs hit US$1.396 on November 18, up 24% compared to September 4. The price for 2GB DDR3 1600MHz RAM recorded US$1.997, a 27% increase.
    Kim Sung-in, a senior analyst at Kium Securities, said, “DRAM prices are likely to continue to rise in Q4 2013 and Q1 2014,” adding, “Memory manufactures such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron, and Toshiba are expected to post the best performance next year.”




    - See more at: http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/artic....oKodITJa.dpuf

    - - - Updated - - -

    I wonder what is causing the dram price increase other than recent hynix fire incident.

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    The prices of DDR2 and DDR3 will fall a few months after DDR4 is launched anyway.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sammi View Post
    The prices of DDR2 and DDR3 will fall a few months after DDR4 is launched anyway.
    or it might be the opposite because supply of DDR3 will be reduced as manufacturer will shift their focus on DDR4.

    Do u remember the price hike of DDR2 ram? A stick of DDR2 ram was more expensive than a similar density DDR3 ram before the hynix incident.

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    Quote Originally Posted by minitt View Post
    or it might be the opposite because supply of DDR3 will be reduced as manufacturer will shift their focus on DDR4.

    Do u remember the price hike of DDR2 ram? A stick of DDR2 ram was more expensive than a similar density DDR3 ram before the hynix incident.
    Could be, but as people move to DDR4 supported motherboards the prices for DDR3 will logically have to fall as the demand will decrease, though it will take time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sammi View Post
    Could be, but as people move to DDR4 supported motherboards the prices for DDR3 will logically have to fall as the demand will decrease, though it will take time.
    that will happen when DDR4 become mainstream probably in Q1 2015

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    Quote Originally Posted by minitt View Post
    that will happen when DDR4 become mainstream probably in Q1 2015
    Yeah, along with 2560x1440 or 2560x1600. Good times ahead.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sammi View Post
    Yeah, along with 2560x1440 or 2560x1600. Good times ahead.
    eh I think 4K will start to become mainstream given the amount of marketing effort from both red & green teams. But I think DDR3 will enjoy quite a long shelf life compared to former DRAMS.

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    ekhon ram stock kora dorkar

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    @QuadStorm Just got these today Click image for larger version. 

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    Last edited by minitt; December 9th, 2013 at 18:07.

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    Quote Originally Posted by minitt View Post
    eh I think 4K will start to become mainstream given the amount of marketing effort from both red & green teams. But I think DDR3 will enjoy quite a long shelf life compared to former DRAMS.
    AMD and Nvidia pushing 4K doesn't mean the monitors will be cheaper. 1440p displays are next in line to get a price drop thanks to better manufacturing yields. They are already at pretty attractive prices right now, just not close to 1080p levels.

    My next monitor has to be minimum 1440p with 120Hz refresh rate at <$300

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    But enthusiast users are sure to aim for 4k. The current vibe seems to march to that direction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by aayman View Post
    AMD and Nvidia pushing 4K doesn't mean the monitors will be cheaper. 1440p displays are next in line to get a price drop thanks to better manufacturing yields. They are already at pretty attractive prices right now, just not close to 1080p levels.

    My next monitor has to be minimum 1440p with 120Hz refresh rate at <$300
    my plan is to get a g-sync one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by minitt View Post
    @QuadStorm Just got these today Click image for larger version. 

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    how much did they cost u?

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    goto koyek mashei to barse... aro barbe

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    @minitt vai koto porlo?? Ramgula jhakkas pura

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    Quote Originally Posted by QuadStorm View Post
    vai koto porlo?? Ramgula jhakkas pura
    CL9 @1600mhz. Not so alluring btw.

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    Quote Originally Posted by QuadStorm View Post
    @minitt vai koto porlo?? Ramgula jhakkas pura
    Around 120$ . Personally I dont feel very confident about the quality of locally available rams.
    Last edited by minitt; December 10th, 2013 at 11:05.

  18. #18

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    Here is mine g.skill ripjaws
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blank page View Post
    Here is mine g.skill ripjaws
    from binary logic? If yes do they sell 1600mhz modules?

  20. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by minitt View Post
    from binary logic? If yes do they sell 1600mhz modules?
    no bought frm newegg via some1...dnt no binary logic e avaliable kina

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