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Thread: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end & Age of China begins

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    Lightbulb IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end & Age of China begins

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf...5?pagenumber=1

    ------------------------------------------

    For those who hates USA , we give u China

    ------------------------------------------


    For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the “Age of America” will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.

    IMF sees China topping U.S. in 2016

    According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China's economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now. Brett Arends looks at the implications for the U.S. dollar and the Treasury market.

    And it’s a lot closer than you may think.

    According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.

    Put that in your calendar.

    It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world’s hegemonic power.

    According to the IMF forecast, which was quietly posted on the Fund’s website just two weeks ago, whoever is elected U.S. president next year — Obama? Mitt Romney? Donald Trump? — will be the last to preside over the world’s largest economy.

    Most people aren’t prepared for this. They aren’t even aware it’s that close. Listen to experts of various stripes, and they will tell you this moment is decades away. The most bearish will put the figure in the mid-2020s.

    China’s economy will be the world’s largest within five years or so.
    But they’re miscounting. They’re only comparing the gross domestic products of the two countries using current exchange rates.

    That’s a largely meaningless comparison in real terms. Exchange rates change quickly. And China’s exchange rates are phony. China artificially undervalues its currency, the renminbi, through massive intervention in the markets.

    The comparison that really matters

    In addition to comparing the two countries based on exchange rates, the IMF analysis also looked to the true, real-terms picture of the economies using “purchasing power parities.” That compares what people earn and spend in real terms in their domestic economies.

    Under PPP, the Chinese economy will expand from $11.2 trillion this year to $19 trillion in 2016. Meanwhile the size of the U.S. economy will rise from $15.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion. That would take America’s share of the world output down to 17.7%, the lowest in modern times. China’s would reach 18%, and rising.

    Just 10 years ago, the U.S. economy was three times the size of China’s.

    Naturally, all forecasts are fallible. Time and chance happen to them all. The actual date when China surpasses the U.S. might come even earlier than the IMF predicts, or somewhat later. If the great Chinese juggernaut blows a tire, as a growing number fear it might, it could even delay things by several years. But the outcome is scarcely in doubt.

    This is more than a statistical story. It is the end of the Age of America. As a bond strategist in Europe told me two weeks ago, “We are witnessing the end of America’s economic hegemony.”

    We have lived in a world dominated by the U.S. for so long that there is no longer anyone alive who remembers anything else. America overtook Great Britain as the world’s leading economic power in the 1890s and never looked back.

    And both those countries live under very similar rules of constitutional government, respect for civil liberties and the rights of property. China has none of those. The Age of China will feel very different.

    Victor Cha, senior adviser on Asian affairs at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies, told me China’s neighbors in Asia are already waking up to the dangers. “The region is overwhelmingly looking to the U.S. in a way that it hasn’t done in the past,” he said. “They see the U.S. as a counterweight to China. They also see American hegemony over the last half-century as fairly benign. In China they see the rise of an economic power that is not benevolent, that can be predatory. They don’t see it as a benign hegemony.”

    The rise of China, and the relative decline of America, is the biggest story of our time. You can see its implications everywhere, from shuttered factories in the Midwest to soaring costs of oil and other commodities. Last fall, when I attended a conference in London about agricultural investment, I was struck by the number of people there who told stories about Chinese interests snapping up farmland and foodstuff supplies — from South America to China and elsewhere.

    This is the result of decades during which China has successfully pursued economic policies aimed at national expansion and power, while the U.S. has embraced either free trade or, for want of a better term, economic appeasement.

    “There are two systems in collision,” said Ralph Gomory, research professor at NYU’s Stern business school. “They have a state-guided form of capitalism, and we have a much freer former of capitalism.” What we have seen, he said, is “a massive shift in capability from the U.S. to China. What we have done is traded jobs for profit. The jobs have moved to China. The capability erodes in the U.S. and grows in China. That’s very destructive. That is a big reason why the U.S. is becoming more and more polarized between a small, very rich class and an eroding middle class. The people who get the profits are very different from the people who lost the wages.

    ----------------------------------

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    Default Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end & Age of China begins

    This is bad
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    Default Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end & Age of China begins

    and we are gonna be crushed by the weight of India and China. Seriously they are both very close to us .......... our RMG factories will close down coz China & India itself is big RMG manufacturer. If western countries fall, who will buy our exports ??? What will we export to China and India ??? We are net importers with them ....... the end of USA is the beginning of our end also and for many other countries ...... Indians know this and dats y they butcher our people across the border ......

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    Default Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end & Age of China begins

    I hate ya all!!!


  5. #5

    Default Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end & Age of China begins

    age of chiina has begun.....this is true...but usa will not leave them alone...

    usa will cross their limit to overcome china....so that usa is very keen to be friend of india and make this country as their biggest market...india,brazil,china-these are the biggest threat to them...so they will do friendship or will begin wars like afganistan,iraq...

    DON'T BE ANGRY ON UR FRIENDS.... COZ UP TO THE LAST MOMENTS OF LIFE .... WHAT PAINS US IS NOT WORDS OF ENEMIES .... BUT SILENCE OF FRIENDS....

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    Default Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end & Age of China begins

    Quote Originally Posted by [email protected] View Post
    Indians know this and dats y they butcher our people across the border ......
    hey, we have indians here
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    Default Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end & Age of China begins

    Quote Originally Posted by W1C|<3D View Post
    hey, we have indians here
    aita to fact ora shomane border killing kortese. Bhoy paile ki korto naki ......

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    Default Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end & Age of China begins

    Quote Originally Posted by W1C|<3D View Post
    hey, we have indians here
    Sonkha-loghu ..........
    Every hero has a journey. Every journey has an end.


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